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“Should Scotland be an independent country?”

That is the question Scots will be asked when they go to the polls on September
18th. The outcome of the vote will have a significant impact on the future of
Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom. More interestingly, this
referendum is being closely watched in a seemingly unlikely corner of the
world: the Zanzibar archipelagos in East Africa.

Zanzibar is a semi-autonomous region of Tanzania. The islands are famous as a
tourist destination, boasting beautiful white sandy beaches and narrow streets
of Stone Town. Scottish explorer, David Livingstone, began and ended many of
his journeys in Zanzibar. For hundreds of years, the islands have served as the
center of Kiswahili culture and remain proud of their past glory asthe epicenter of trade and wealthin East and Central Africa, with links to the
Middle East and Asia that go as far back as 7th century.

More recently, the islands have been a hotbed of political tension with roots
emerging from 1950s rivalries between nationalist movements, mainly Africans
and Arabs, during the struggle for independence from Britain. The rivalry led
to a violent revolution in January 1964 carried out by Africans against Arabs,
killing many and forcing others to flee the islands. Few months later in April
1964, the islands formed a union with the then Republic of Tanganyika to form
one sovereign United Republic of Tanzania. Under the arrangement, Zanzibar was
allowed to retain a small degree of autonomy under its own island government
dealing with local affairs, while major issues such as foreign affairs,
defense, immigration and currency were placed under the Union government. This
“two tier” union structure was conceived in order to ensure that Zanzibar won’t
get “swallowed” by its much larger partner, and so Tanganyika (nowadays
referred to as Mainland Tanzania) won’t bare the substantial burden of running
both the Tanganyika government and the Union government.

Historical specificities aside, the structure of the Union of Tanzania is quite
similar to that of the United Kingdom. England’s government ceased to exist in
1707 when it merged with Scotland to form the UK; much the same way Tanganyika
ceased to exist after the Union with Zanzibar to form Tanzania. England does
not have its own government, with her affairs being managed within the UK’s
central government; much the same way Mainland Tanzania’s local affairs are
managed within the Union government. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland enjoy
devolved powers from the central government the same way Zanzibar does. Whether
or not Julius Nyerere, co-founder of the Union of Tanzania (who incidentally
studied British History and Constitutional Law at University of Edinburgh), was
inspired by the structure of union he saw in Scotland and decided to adopt it
back home, is debatable.

While the UK was born out of conquests and suppression of Scottish language,
religion and culture for many years, Tanzania was born out of Pan-African ideas
and the African independence movement. The calculated need for
self-preservation within the unstable new regime in Zanzibar after the
revolution also played a role in bringing about, and later on, preserving the
Union. Global geopolitical concerns which were heightened by the Cold War
simultaneously accelerated the formation of the Union. There is also strong
suggestions of the CIA nudging the formation of the Union to prevent Zanzibar
from becoming a communist heaven.

Despite tensions and discontents from both sides, the Union has survived for 50
years, with the Mainland providing much needed stability to the islands.
Constant demands for larger autonomy for Zanzibar, and periodic calls for full
secession from the Union, have come up throughout the life of the union. Today,
many political observers admit to a resurgent and united “Zanzibari Nationalism”
that has united elements of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi(CCM) in Zanzibar with the
opposition Civic Union Front party.

In the same way there is an undercurrent of resentment by the Scottish towards
the English and vice versa, there is similar degree of resentment, although not
deep seated, between Zanzibaris and Mainlanders. For the most part, people from
both sides of Tanzania do intermarry, do resettle and trade among each other as
they have done for generations without any problems.

Zanzibari nationalists lament the gradual increase by the union government of
the so-called “Union Matters” from the initial 11 to the current 22 issues,
which further erodes the little sovereignty they had. They want the Union
government to remove the “Tanganyika jacket” by creating a separate entity to
run Mainland affairs. On the other hand, there have been persistent demands by
some mainlanders for the restoration of Tanganyika government because they feel
they have been carrying most of the weight in servicing the Union compared to
Zanzibaris.

The referendum in Scotland is a significant eventfor states that want to secede. There is a sense that an independent Scotland
could indeed set a precedent or provide inspiration for entities like Zanzibar.
According to a Tanzanian diplomat in London, “both sides of the divide in
Zanzibar are following the debate in Scotland and are awaiting the outcome of
the referendum with apprehension.” Each side will be able to use the arguments
and outcome to advance or vindicate their position. While there are no known
formal links between the two “separatist” movements,Rachel Hamada, a non-partisan journalist who has spent the last
decade between Scotland and Zanzibar, says she is aware of many Zanzibaris who
support secession “who have been observing events in Scotland with great
interest. If Scotland does go its own way, undoubtedly pro-separation
campaigners from Zanzibar will want to investigate the path to such a vote.”

Tanzania’s ruling CCM have resisted calls for a special referendum on the
structure of the union. There’s also the question of who deserves to be asked
to vote in such a referendum: Zanzibaris only (population of 1.3 million),
mainlanders only (population of 43 million) or both? 3 years ago they agreed to
rewrite the entire Union Constitution that will be followed by a referendum to
adopt it. The commission that drafted the new constitution presented a
“three-tier” structure, which CCM as a majority block in the Constituent
Assembly objected to. This led to a walkout this past April by the opposition.
Last week,the constitutional process officially stalled, and efforts are currently underway to find ways
to resume it after next year’s general elections. The plan was hinted earlier
in July by Mr. January Makamba, a pro-Union and reformist politician from CCM,when he said, “If there is a need to postpone the current constitutional
process, let us do it so that we get a better constitution which has the
consensus from all sides. Since the structure of the union is a highly
contentious issue, it should be sent back to the people to decide via a
referendum before the constitutional process resumes after the 2015 general
election.”

Supporters of three-tier government structure in Tanzania argue the ruling
party CCM is using fear-mongering to claim that the three-tier structure as
proposed in the draft constitution will lead to the break-up of the Union. CCM
believes the proposed structure would leave the Union government weak and
dependent because it will be stripped-off its economic power base. They are in
favor of more devolution of powers within the current two-tier structure, but
they are yet to present specific proposals. Similar accusations of
fear-mongering has been leveled towards the “No” campaign in Scotland (known as
Better Together”), with observation that their public messaging on
behalf of the UK has been poor, lacking best content creativity and social
media savviness needed to convince the public. The same can be said with
pro-union Tanzanians, who for many years have been slow to react to the
arguments presented by Zanzibaris, to the extent the latter have been able to
create a dominant narrative.

Generally, pro-union factions in both Scotland and Zanzibar have been portrayed
by their local opponents as “stubborn conservatives” who are unwilling to
change and insist on unworkable structures that won’t preserve the unions for
long-term. There is a strong feeling in Zanzibar that pro-union supporters are
mostly political elites in the current Union government and ruling party CCM.
According toEvarist Chahali, a Tanzanian journalist and columnist living in
Glasgow, a similar perception has frequently been heard among the pro-Scotland
independence supporters that, “the whole ‘Better Together’ thing is about preserving
the status quo for some Scottish politicians at Westminster.” The feeling in
both “separatist” movements is that despite a good degree of political
devolution and autonomy, they are each subjected to a union ruling class which
doesn’t understand or care about their local issues. This partly explains why
the rest of UK is run by parties that have been rejected in Scotland.
Conversely, the opposition CUF is stronger in Zanzibar compared to mainland
Tanzania where its support declined in the last elections.

Interestingly, Scotland is said to be home to a substantial number of
Zanzibaris who went there to seek asylum after the 2001 post-election violence
at home. These foreign born asylum seekers and refugees from Commonwealth
countries like Tanzania are eligible to vote in the referendum, and will form
one of the strongest polling block for the “Yes Scotland” independence camp.
These exiled Zanzibaris are known to be opposition supporters and generally are
against the Union. However, it remains to be seen whether their role in helping
Scotland secure its independence could translate into encouraging the same to
happen in their homeland.

Despite the recent drop in numbers of undecided voters, it’s still hard to
predict the outcome of the Scottish referendum. For a while, most polls
suggested that the “Better Together” camp would prevail, but recent the polls
have been tightening, meaning the outcome could go either way. If the results
are for “Yes Scotland”, there will be a long period of negotiation on
the terms of separation, involving issues such as the division of the national
debt, the division of oil revenue, Scotland’s membership of the EU, her
retention of the Queen as head of state and continual usage of the Pound
Sterling, as well as terms of any future bailouts from UK. All will be hard
fought, as journalist Rachel Hamada adds: “Even with devolution in the late
nineties, which had widespread political support, the negotiations were fierce,
so we can expect they would be ferocious this time round”. The divorce will be
long and bitter, and Tanzanians should expect the same should a similar
situation happen to them. Analysts agree that if “No” vote wins, it will be
because the “Yes” vote for independence did not make a compelling and
reassuring case to provide a knockout punch to convince the Scottish that they
will be better off independent. Either way, most observers agree that the
result will be close and thus there will be consequence. UK will have to
consider measures to give Scotland greater powers. The Union could prevail due
to the simple fact that it is the devil the Scottish people know.

The whole of UK is an island with Scotland as part of it, while Zanzibar is an
island disconnected from her partner in the mainland. Yet, an important common
denominator between Scotland and Zanzibar is oil resources. Although Scotland
has a finite supply of oil in the North Sea, the “Yes Scotland” campaign has
based much of their argument on the ability of this resource to sustain and
propel an independent Scotland. Zanzibar is yet to discover oil near its Indian
Ocean waters, but has campaigned hard toremove oil and gas from Union Mattersso that they can manage the resource locally. The
Union government quietly agreed, and last year Zanzibarsigned an agreement with Shell to do explorationin their waters. “There is a perception that
potential for oil in the islands boosted the desire for the Zanzibaris to go
solo,” observes Chahali. Many opposition supporters in Zanzibar believe that
oil will transform the islands to their past glory, and they add this argument
alongside the restoration of national pride and the need for greater links with
the Islamic world as key arguments for full autonomy.

Perhaps the main lesson to Tanzania has been how ‘civilized’ the Scottish referendum
process has been so far. While emotions on both sides have been running high,
there have been very few incidences of violence or threats to derail the
process. Once UK government approved the referendum, it made it clear that they
would honor whatever outcome from the vote. Party politics have been kept at
bay, with “Better Together” campaign being led by Alistair Darling, a Labour
politician who is campaigning on behalf of the UK government led by the
Conservative Party. On the other hand, the “Yes Scotland” camp led by First
Minister Alex Salmond has tried to make the issue of independence that of the
Scottish people rather than his Scottish Nationalist Party.

Many agree that the way forward for Tanzania is for more devolution or greater
identity and autonomy for Zanzibar, with Union retaining big issues such as
defense and economy. The Union President Jakaya Kikwete admits to long-running
political “fault lines” in Zanzibar which necessitated a power sharing
agreement in 2010 between the two major parties in the isles.But Kikwete recently played downany notion of a strong “separatist movement” in
Zanzibar, saying it wasn’t a big issue that needed to be blown out of
proportion. He believes it can be contained: “We will always be able to manage
them and I don’t think they will be able to wreck the country,” he assured.
However, many observers believe it was partly due to such fears of secession
that compelled the President to see the wisdom of initiating a rewrite of the
Union Constitution in order to preempt violent demands for more autonomy in
Zanzibar and to guarantee survival of the Union “for the next 50 years”.
Tanzania and the Cameroon, remain the two longest surviving and most successful
unions in modern day Africa after the collapse of Ghana-Guinea Union, the
Senegambia and United Arab Republic (UAR). No other examples remain of
independent Africa countries that decided on own volition to unite.

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“Should Scotland be an independent country?”

That is the question Scots will be asked when they go to the polls on September
18th. The outcome of the vote will have a significant impact on the future of
Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom. More interestingly, this
referendum is being closely watched in a seemingly unlikely corner of the
world: the Zanzibar archipelagos in East Africa.

Zanzibar is a semi-autonomous region of Tanzania. The islands are famous as a
tourist destination, boasting beautiful white sandy beaches and narrow streets
of Stone Town. Scottish explorer, David Livingstone, began and ended many of
his journeys in Zanzibar. For hundreds of years, the islands have served as the
center of Kiswahili culture and remain proud of their past glory asthe epicenter of trade and wealthin East and Central Africa, with links to the
Middle East and Asia that go as far back as 7th century.

More recently, the islands have been a hotbed of political tension with roots
emerging from 1950s rivalries between nationalist movements, mainly Africans
and Arabs, during the struggle for independence from Britain. The rivalry led
to a violent revolution in January 1964 carried out by Africans against Arabs,
killing many and forcing others to flee the islands. Few months later in April
1964, the islands formed a union with the then Republic of Tanganyika to form
one sovereign United Republic of Tanzania. Under the arrangement, Zanzibar was
allowed to retain a small degree of autonomy under its own island government
dealing with local affairs, while major issues such as foreign affairs,
defense, immigration and currency were placed under the Union government. This
“two tier” union structure was conceived in order to ensure that Zanzibar won’t
get “swallowed” by its much larger partner, and so Tanganyika (nowadays
referred to as Mainland Tanzania) won’t bare the substantial burden of running
both the Tanganyika government and the Union government.

Historical specificities aside, the structure of the Union of Tanzania is quite
similar to that of the United Kingdom. England’s government ceased to exist in
1707 when it merged with Scotland to form the UK; much the same way Tanganyika
ceased to exist after the Union with Zanzibar to form Tanzania. England does
not have its own government, with her affairs being managed within the UK’s
central government; much the same way Mainland Tanzania’s local affairs are
managed within the Union government. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland enjoy
devolved powers from the central government the same way Zanzibar does. Whether
or not Julius Nyerere, co-founder of the Union of Tanzania (who incidentally
studied British History and Constitutional Law at University of Edinburgh), was
inspired by the structure of union he saw in Scotland and decided to adopt it
back home, is debatable.

While the UK was born out of conquests and suppression of Scottish language,
religion and culture for many years, Tanzania was born out of Pan-African ideas
and the African independence movement. The calculated need for
self-preservation within the unstable new regime in Zanzibar after the
revolution also played a role in bringing about, and later on, preserving the
Union. Global geopolitical concerns which were heightened by the Cold War
simultaneously accelerated the formation of the Union. There is also strong
suggestions of the CIA nudging the formation of the Union to prevent Zanzibar
from becoming a communist heaven.

Despite tensions and discontents from both sides, the Union has survived for 50
years, with the Mainland providing much needed stability to the islands.
Constant demands for larger autonomy for Zanzibar, and periodic calls for full
secession from the Union, have come up throughout the life of the union. Today,
many political observers admit to a resurgent and united “Zanzibari
Nationalism” that has united elements of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi(CCM) in Zanzibar with the
opposition Civic Union Front party.

In the same way there is an undercurrent of resentment by the Scottish towards
the English and vice versa, there is similar degree of resentment, although not
deep seated, between Zanzibaris and Mainlanders. For the most part, people from
both sides of Tanzania do intermarry, do resettle and trade among each other as
they have done for generations without any problems.

Zanzibari nationalists lament the gradual increase by the union government of
the so-called “Union Matters” from the initial 11 to the current 22 issues,
which further erodes the little sovereignty they had. They want the Union
government to remove the “Tanganyika jacket” by creating a separate entity to
run Mainland affairs. On the other hand, there have been persistent demands by
some mainlanders for the restoration of Tanganyika government because they feel
they have been carrying most of the weight in servicing the Union compared to
Zanzibaris.

The referendum in Scotland is a significant eventfor states that want to secede. There is a sense that an independent Scotland
could indeed set a precedent or provide inspiration for entities like Zanzibar.
According to a Tanzanian diplomat in London, “both sides of the divide in
Zanzibar are following the debate in Scotland and are awaiting the outcome of
the referendum with apprehension.” Each side will be able to use the arguments
and outcome to advance or vindicate their position. While there are no known
formal links between the two “separatist” movements,Rachel Hamada, a non-partisan journalist who has spent the last
decade between Scotland and Zanzibar, says she is aware of many Zanzibaris who
support secession “who have been observing events in Scotland with great
interest. If Scotland does go its own way, undoubtedly pro-separation
campaigners from Zanzibar will want to investigate the path to such a vote.”

Tanzania’s ruling CCM have resisted calls for a special referendum on the
structure of the union. There’s also the question of who deserves to be asked
to vote in such a referendum: Zanzibaris only (population of 1.3 million),
mainlanders only (population of 43 million) or both? 3 years ago they agreed to
rewrite the entire Union Constitution that will be followed by a referendum to
adopt it. The commission that drafted the new constitution presented a
“three-tier” structure, which CCM as a majority block in the Constituent
Assembly objected to. This led to a walkout this past April by the opposition.
Last week,the constitutional process officially stalled, and efforts are currently underway to find ways
to resume it after next year’s general elections. The plan was hinted earlier
in July by Mr. January Makamba, a pro-Union and reformist politician from CCM,when he said, “If there is a need to postpone the current
constitutional process, let us do it so that we get a better constitution which
has the consensus from all sides. Since the structure of the union is a highly
contentious issue, it should be sent back to the people to decide via a
referendum before the constitutional process resumes after the 2015 general
election.”

Supporters of three-tier government structure in Tanzania argue the ruling
party CCM is using fear-mongering to claim that the three-tier structure as
proposed in the draft constitution will lead to the break-up of the Union. CCM
believes the proposed structure would leave the Union government weak and
dependent because it will be stripped-off its economic power base. They are in
favor of more devolution of powers within the current two-tier structure, but
they are yet to present specific proposals. Similar accusations of
fear-mongering has been leveled towards the “No” campaign in Scotland (known as
Better Together”), with observation that their public messaging on
behalf of the UK has been poor, lacking best content creativity and social
media savviness needed to convince the public. The same can be said with
pro-union Tanzanians, who for many years have been slow to react to the
arguments presented by Zanzibaris, to the extent the latter have been able to
create a dominant narrative.

Generally, pro-union factions in both Scotland and Zanzibar have been portrayed
by their local opponents as “stubborn conservatives” who are unwilling to
change and insist on unworkable structures that won’t preserve the unions for
long-term. There is a strong feeling in Zanzibar that pro-union supporters are
mostly political elites in the current Union government and ruling party CCM.
According toEvarist Chahali, a Tanzanian journalist and columnist living in
Glasgow, a similar perception has frequently been heard among the pro-Scotland
independence supporters that, “the whole ‘Better Together’ thing is about
preserving the status quo for some Scottish politicians at Westminster.” The
feeling in both “separatist” movements is that despite a good degree of
political devolution and autonomy, they are each subjected to a union ruling
class which doesn’t understand or care about their local issues. This partly
explains why the rest of UK is run by parties that have been rejected in
Scotland. Conversely, the opposition CUF is stronger in Zanzibar compared to
mainland Tanzania where its support declined in the last elections.

Interestingly, Scotland is said to be home to a substantial number of
Zanzibaris who went there to seek asylum after the 2001 post-election violence
at home. These foreign born asylum seekers and refugees from Commonwealth
countries like Tanzania are eligible to vote in the referendum, and will form
one of the strongest polling block for the “Yes Scotland” independence camp.
These exiled Zanzibaris are known to be opposition supporters and generally are
against the Union. However, it remains to be seen whether their role in helping
Scotland secure its independence could translate into encouraging the same to
happen in their homeland.

Despite the recent drop in numbers of undecided voters, it’s still hard to
predict the outcome of the Scottish referendum. For a while, most polls
suggested that the “Better Together” camp would prevail, but recent the polls
have been tightening, meaning the outcome could go either way. If the results
are for “Yes Scotland”, there will be a long period of negotiation on
the terms of separation, involving issues such as the division of the national
debt, the division of oil revenue, Scotland’s membership of the EU, her
retention of the Queen as head of state and continual usage of the Pound
Sterling, as well as terms of any future bailouts from UK. All will be hard
fought, as journalist Rachel Hamada adds: “Even with devolution in the late
nineties, which had widespread political support, the negotiations were fierce,
so we can expect they would be ferocious this time round”. The divorce will be
long and bitter, and Tanzanians should expect the same should a similar
situation happen to them. Analysts agree that if “No” vote wins, it will be
because the “Yes” vote for independence did not make a compelling and
reassuring case to provide a knockout punch to convince the Scottish that they
will be better off independent. Either way, most observers agree that the
result will be close and thus there will be consequence. UK will have to
consider measures to give Scotland greater powers. The Union could prevail due
to the simple fact that it is the devil the Scottish people know.

The whole of UK is an island with Scotland as part of it, while Zanzibar is an
island disconnected from her partner in the mainland. Yet, an important common
denominator between Scotland and Zanzibar is oil resources. Although Scotland
has a finite supply of oil in the North Sea, the “Yes Scotland” campaign has
based much of their argument on the ability of this resource to sustain and
propel an independent Scotland. Zanzibar is yet to discover oil near its Indian
Ocean waters, but has campaigned hard toremove oil and gas from Union Mattersso that they can manage the resource locally. The
Union government quietly agreed, and last year Zanzibarsigned an agreement with Shell to do explorationin their waters. “There is a perception that
potential for oil in the islands boosted the desire for the Zanzibaris to go
solo,” observes Chahali. Many opposition supporters in Zanzibar believe that
oil will transform the islands to their past glory, and they add this argument
alongside the restoration of national pride and the need for greater links with
the Islamic world as key arguments for full autonomy.

Perhaps the main lesson to Tanzania has been how ‘civilized’ the Scottish
referendum process has been so far. While emotions on both sides have been
running high, there have been very few incidences of violence or threats to
derail the process. Once UK government approved the referendum, it made it
clear that they would honor whatever outcome from the vote. Party politics have
been kept at bay, with “Better Together” campaign being led by Alistair
Darling, a Labour politician who is campaigning on behalf of the UK government
led by the Conservative Party. On the other hand, the “Yes Scotland” camp led
by First Minister Alex Salmond has tried to make the issue of independence that
of the Scottish people rather than his Scottish Nationalist Party.

Many agree that the way forward for Tanzania is for more devolution or greater
identity and autonomy for Zanzibar, with Union retaining big issues such as
defense and economy. The Union President Jakaya Kikwete admits to long-running
political “fault lines” in Zanzibar which necessitated a power sharing
agreement in 2010 between the two major parties in the isles.But Kikwete recently played downany notion of a strong “separatist movement” in
Zanzibar, saying it wasn’t a big issue that needed to be blown out of
proportion. He believes it can be contained: “We will always be able to manage
them and I don’t think they will be able to wreck the country,” he assured.
However, many observers believe it was partly due to such fears of secession
that compelled the President to see the wisdom of initiating a rewrite of the
Union Constitution in order to preempt violent demands for more autonomy in
Zanzibar and to guarantee survival of the Union “for the next 50 years”.
Tanzania and the Cameroon, remain the two longest surviving and most successful
unions in modern day Africa after the collapse of Ghana-Guinea Union, the Senegambia
and United Arab Republic (UAR). No other examples remain of independent Africa
countries that decided on own volition to unite.

o0 Attachment

o 

“Should Scotland be an independent country?”

That is the question Scots will be asked when they go to the polls on September
18th. The outcome of the vote will have a significant impact on the future of
Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom. More interestingly, this
referendum is being closely watched in a seemingly unlikely corner of the
world: the Zanzibar archipelagos in East Africa.

Zanzibar is a semi-autonomous region of Tanzania. The islands are famous as a
tourist destination, boasting beautiful white sandy beaches and narrow streets
of Stone Town. Scottish explorer, David Livingstone, began and ended many of
his journeys in Zanzibar. For hundreds of years, the islands have served as the
center of Kiswahili culture and remain proud of their past glory asthe epicenter of trade and wealthin East and Central Africa, with links to the
Middle East and Asia that go as far back as 7th century.

More recently, the islands have been a hotbed of political tension with roots
emerging from 1950s rivalries between nationalist movements, mainly Africans
and Arabs, during the struggle for independence from Britain. The rivalry led
to a violent revolution in January 1964 carried out by Africans against Arabs,
killing many and forcing others to flee the islands. Few months later in April
1964, the islands formed a union with the then Republic of Tanganyika to form
one sovereign United Republic of Tanzania. Under the arrangement, Zanzibar was
allowed to retain a small degree of autonomy under its own island government
dealing with local affairs, while major issues such as foreign affairs,
defense, immigration and currency were placed under the Union government. This
“two tier” union structure was conceived in order to ensure that Zanzibar won’t
get “swallowed” by its much larger partner, and so Tanganyika (nowadays
referred to as Mainland Tanzania) won’t bare the substantial burden of running
both the Tanganyika government and the Union government.

Historical specificities aside, the structure of the Union of Tanzania is quite
similar to that of the United Kingdom. England’s government ceased to exist in
1707 when it merged with Scotland to form the UK; much the same way Tanganyika
ceased to exist after the Union with Zanzibar to form Tanzania. England does
not have its own government, with her affairs being managed within the UK’s
central government; much the same way Mainland Tanzania’s local affairs are
managed within the Union government. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland enjoy
devolved powers from the central government the same way Zanzibar does. Whether
or not Julius Nyerere, co-founder of the Union of Tanzania (who incidentally
studied British History and Constitutional Law at University of Edinburgh), was
inspired by the structure of union he saw in Scotland and decided to adopt it
back home, is debatable.

While the UK was born out of conquests and suppression of Scottish language,
religion and culture for many years, Tanzania was born out of Pan-African ideas
and the African independence movement. The calculated need for
self-preservation within the unstable new regime in Zanzibar after the
revolution also played a role in bringing about, and later on, preserving the
Union. Global geopolitical concerns which were heightened by the Cold War
simultaneously accelerated the formation of the Union. There is also strong
suggestions of the CIA nudging the formation of the Union to prevent Zanzibar
from becoming a communist heaven.

Despite tensions and discontents from both sides, the Union has survived for 50
years, with the Mainland providing much needed stability to the islands.
Constant demands for larger autonomy for Zanzibar, and periodic calls for full
secession from the Union, have come up throughout the life of the union. Today,
many political observers admit to a resurgent and united “Zanzibari Nationalism”
that has united elements of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi(CCM) in Zanzibar with the
opposition Civic Union Front party.

In the same way there is an undercurrent of resentment by the Scottish towards
the English and vice versa, there is similar degree of resentment, although not
deep seated, between Zanzibaris and Mainlanders. For the most part, people from
both sides of Tanzania do intermarry, do resettle and trade among each other as
they have done for generations without any problems.

Zanzibari nationalists lament the gradual increase by the union government of
the so-called “Union Matters” from the initial 11 to the current 22 issues,
which further erodes the little sovereignty they had. They want the Union
government to remove the “Tanganyika jacket” by creating a separate entity to
run Mainland affairs. On the other hand, there have been persistent demands by
some mainlanders for the restoration of Tanganyika government because they feel
they have been carrying most of the weight in servicing the Union compared to
Zanzibaris.

The referendum in Scotland is a significant eventfor states that want to secede. There is a sense that an independent Scotland
could indeed set a precedent or provide inspiration for entities like Zanzibar.
According to a Tanzanian diplomat in London, “both sides of the divide in
Zanzibar are following the debate in Scotland and are awaiting the outcome of
the referendum with apprehension.” Each side will be able to use the arguments
and outcome to advance or vindicate their position. While there are no known
formal links between the two “separatist” movements,Rachel Hamada, a non-partisan journalist who has spent the last
decade between Scotland and Zanzibar, says she is aware of many Zanzibaris who
support secession “who have been observing events in Scotland with great
interest. If Scotland does go its own way, undoubtedly pro-separation
campaigners from Zanzibar will want to investigate the path to such a vote.”

Tanzania’s ruling CCM have resisted calls for a special referendum on the
structure of the union. There’s also the question of who deserves to be asked
to vote in such a referendum: Zanzibaris only (population of 1.3 million),
mainlanders only (population of 43 million) or both? 3 years ago they agreed to
rewrite the entire Union Constitution that will be followed by a referendum to
adopt it. The commission that drafted the new constitution presented a
“three-tier” structure, which CCM as a majority block in the Constituent
Assembly objected to. This led to a walkout this past April by the opposition.
Last week,the constitutional process officially stalled, and efforts are currently underway to find ways
to resume it after next year’s general elections. The plan was hinted earlier
in July by Mr. January Makamba, a pro-Union and reformist politician from CCM,when he said, “If there is a need to postpone the current constitutional
process, let us do it so that we get a better constitution which has the
consensus from all sides. Since the structure of the union is a highly
contentious issue, it should be sent back to the people to decide via a
referendum before the constitutional process resumes after the 2015 general
election.”

Supporters of three-tier government structure in Tanzania argue the ruling
party CCM is using fear-mongering to claim that the three-tier structure as
proposed in the draft constitution will lead to the break-up of the Union. CCM
believes the proposed structure would leave the Union government weak and
dependent because it will be stripped-off its economic power base. They are in
favor of more devolution of powers within the current two-tier structure, but
they are yet to present specific proposals. Similar accusations of
fear-mongering has been leveled towards the “No” campaign in Scotland (known as
Better Together”), with observation that their public messaging on
behalf of the UK has been poor, lacking best content creativity and social
media savviness needed to convince the public. The same can be said with
pro-union Tanzanians, who for many years have been slow to react to the
arguments presented by Zanzibaris, to the extent the latter have been able to
create a dominant narrative.

Generally, pro-union factions in both Scotland and Zanzibar have been portrayed
by their local opponents as “stubborn conservatives” who are unwilling to
change and insist on unworkable structures that won’t preserve the unions for
long-term. There is a strong feeling in Zanzibar that pro-union supporters are
mostly political elites in the current Union government and ruling party CCM.
According toEvarist Chahali, a Tanzanian journalist and columnist living in
Glasgow, a similar perception has frequently been heard among the pro-Scotland
independence supporters that, “the whole ‘Better Together’ thing is about preserving
the status quo for some Scottish politicians at Westminster.” The feeling in
both “separatist” movements is that despite a good degree of political
devolution and autonomy, they are each subjected to a union ruling class which
doesn’t understand or care about their local issues. This partly explains why
the rest of UK is run by parties that have been rejected in Scotland.
Conversely, the opposition CUF is stronger in Zanzibar compared to mainland
Tanzania where its support declined in the last elections.

Interestingly, Scotland is said to be home to a substantial number of
Zanzibaris who went there to seek asylum after the 2001 post-election violence
at home. These foreign born asylum seekers and refugees from Commonwealth
countries like Tanzania are eligible to vote in the referendum, and will form
one of the strongest polling block for the “Yes Scotland” independence camp.
These exiled Zanzibaris are known to be opposition supporters and generally are
against the Union. However, it remains to be seen whether their role in helping
Scotland secure its independence could translate into encouraging the same to
happen in their homeland.

Despite the recent drop in numbers of undecided voters, it’s still hard to
predict the outcome of the Scottish referendum. For a while, most polls
suggested that the “Better Together” camp would prevail, but recent the polls
have been tightening, meaning the outcome could go either way. If the results
are for “Yes Scotland”, there will be a long period of negotiation on
the terms of separation, involving issues such as the division of the national
debt, the division of oil revenue, Scotland’s membership of the EU, her
retention of the Queen as head of state and continual usage of the Pound
Sterling, as well as terms of any future bailouts from UK. All will be hard
fought, as journalist Rachel Hamada adds: “Even with devolution in the late
nineties, which had widespread political support, the negotiations were fierce,
so we can expect they would be ferocious this time round”. The divorce will be
long and bitter, and Tanzanians should expect the same should a similar
situation happen to them. Analysts agree that if “No” vote wins, it will be
because the “Yes” vote for independence did not make a compelling and
reassuring case to provide a knockout punch to convince the Scottish that they
will be better off independent. Either way, most observers agree that the
result will be close and thus there will be consequence. UK will have to
consider measures to give Scotland greater powers. The Union could prevail due
to the simple fact that it is the devil the Scottish people know.

The whole of UK is an island with Scotland as part of it, while Zanzibar is an
island disconnected from her partner in the mainland. Yet, an important common
denominator between Scotland and Zanzibar is oil resources. Although Scotland
has a finite supply of oil in the North Sea, the “Yes Scotland” campaign has
based much of their argument on the ability of this resource to sustain and
propel an independent Scotland. Zanzibar is yet to discover oil near its Indian
Ocean waters, but has campaigned hard toremove oil and gas from Union Mattersso that they can manage the resource locally. The
Union government quietly agreed, and last year Zanzibarsigned an agreement with Shell to do explorationin their waters. “There is a perception that
potential for oil in the islands boosted the desire for the Zanzibaris to go
solo,” observes Chahali. Many opposition supporters in Zanzibar believe that
oil will transform the islands to their past glory, and they add this argument
alongside the restoration of national pride and the need for greater links with
the Islamic world as key arguments for full autonomy.

Perhaps the main lesson to Tanzania has been how ‘civilized’ the Scottish referendum
process has been so far. While emotions on both sides have been running high,
there have been very few incidences of violence or threats to derail the
process. Once UK government approved the referendum, it made it clear that they
would honor whatever outcome from the vote. Party politics have been kept at
bay, with “Better Together” campaign being led by Alistair Darling, a Labour
politician who is campaigning on behalf of the UK government led by the
Conservative Party. On the other hand, the “Yes Scotland” camp led by First
Minister Alex Salmond has tried to make the issue of independence that of the
Scottish people rather than his Scottish Nationalist Party.

Many agree that the way forward for Tanzania is for more devolution or greater
identity and autonomy for Zanzibar, with Union retaining big issues such as
defense and economy. The Union President Jakaya Kikwete admits to long-running
political “fault lines” in Zanzibar which necessitated a power sharing
agreement in 2010 between the two major parties in the isles.But Kikwete recently played downany notion of a strong “separatist movement” in
Zanzibar, saying it wasn’t a big issue that needed to be blown out of
proportion. He believes it can be contained: “We will always be able to manage
them and I don’t think they will be able to wreck the country,” he assured.
However, many observers believe it was partly due to such fears of secession
that compelled the President to see the wisdom of initiating a rewrite of the
Union Constitution in order to preempt violent demands for more autonomy in
Zanzibar and to guarantee survival of the Union “for the next 50 years”.
Tanzania and the Cameroon, remain the two longest surviving and most successful
unions in modern day Africa after the collapse of Ghana-Guinea Union, the
Senegambia and United Arab Republic (UAR). No other examples remain of
independent Africa countries that decided on own volition to unite.

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o 

“Should Scotland be an independent country?”

That is the question Scots will be asked when they go to the polls on September
18th. The outcome of the vote will have a significant impact on the future of
Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom. More interestingly, this
referendum is being closely watched in a seemingly unlikely corner of the
world: the Zanzibar archipelagos in East Africa.

Zanzibar is a semi-autonomous region of Tanzania. The islands are famous as a
tourist destination, boasting beautiful white sandy beaches and narrow streets
of Stone Town. Scottish explorer, David Livingstone, began and ended many of
his journeys in Zanzibar. For hundreds of years, the islands have served as the
center of Kiswahili culture and remain proud of their past glory asthe epicenter of trade and wealthin East and Central Africa, with links to the
Middle East and Asia that go as far back as 7th century.

More recently, the islands have been a hotbed of political tension with roots
emerging from 1950s rivalries between nationalist movements, mainly Africans
and Arabs, during the struggle for independence from Britain. The rivalry led
to a violent revolution in January 1964 carried out by Africans against Arabs,
killing many and forcing others to flee the islands. Few months later in April
1964, the islands formed a union with the then Republic of Tanganyika to form
one sovereign United Republic of Tanzania. Under the arrangement, Zanzibar was
allowed to retain a small degree of autonomy under its own island government
dealing with local affairs, while major issues such as foreign affairs,
defense, immigration and currency were placed under the Union government. This
“two tier” union structure was conceived in order to ensure that Zanzibar won’t
get “swallowed” by its much larger partner, and so Tanganyika (nowadays
referred to as Mainland Tanzania) won’t bare the substantial burden of running
both the Tanganyika government and the Union government.

Historical specificities aside, the structure of the Union of Tanzania is quite
similar to that of the United Kingdom. England’s government ceased to exist in
1707 when it merged with Scotland to form the UK; much the same way Tanganyika
ceased to exist after the Union with Zanzibar to form Tanzania. England does
not have its own government, with her affairs being managed within the UK’s
central government; much the same way Mainland Tanzania’s local affairs are
managed within the Union government. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland enjoy
devolved powers from the central government the same way Zanzibar does. Whether
or not Julius Nyerere, co-founder of the Union of Tanzania (who incidentally
studied British History and Constitutional Law at University of Edinburgh), was
inspired by the structure of union he saw in Scotland and decided to adopt it
back home, is debatable.

While the UK was born out of conquests and suppression of Scottish language,
religion and culture for many years, Tanzania was born out of Pan-African ideas
and the African independence movement. The calculated need for
self-preservation within the unstable new regime in Zanzibar after the
revolution also played a role in bringing about, and later on, preserving the
Union. Global geopolitical concerns which were heightened by the Cold War
simultaneously accelerated the formation of the Union. There is also strong
suggestions of the CIA nudging the formation of the Union to prevent Zanzibar
from becoming a communist heaven.

Despite tensions and discontents from both sides, the Union has survived for 50
years, with the Mainland providing much needed stability to the islands.
Constant demands for larger autonomy for Zanzibar, and periodic calls for full
secession from the Union, have come up throughout the life of the union. Today,
many political observers admit to a resurgent and united “Zanzibari
Nationalism” that has united elements of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi(CCM) in Zanzibar with the
opposition Civic Union Front party.

In the same way there is an undercurrent of resentment by the Scottish towards
the English and vice versa, there is similar degree of resentment, although not
deep seated, between Zanzibaris and Mainlanders. For the most part, people from
both sides of Tanzania do intermarry, do resettle and trade among each other as
they have done for generations without any problems.

Zanzibari nationalists lament the gradual increase by the union government of
the so-called “Union Matters” from the initial 11 to the current 22 issues,
which further erodes the little sovereignty they had. They want the Union
government to remove the “Tanganyika jacket” by creating a separate entity to
run Mainland affairs. On the other hand, there have been persistent demands by
some mainlanders for the restoration of Tanganyika government because they feel
they have been carrying most of the weight in servicing the Union compared to
Zanzibaris.

The referendum in Scotland is a significant eventfor states that want to secede. There is a sense that an independent Scotland
could indeed set a precedent or provide inspiration for entities like Zanzibar.
According to a Tanzanian diplomat in London, “both sides of the divide in
Zanzibar are following the debate in Scotland and are awaiting the outcome of
the referendum with apprehension.” Each side will be able to use the arguments
and outcome to advance or vindicate their position. While there are no known
formal links between the two “separatist” movements,Rachel Hamada, a non-partisan journalist who has spent the last
decade between Scotland and Zanzibar, says she is aware of many Zanzibaris who
support secession “who have been observing events in Scotland with great
interest. If Scotland does go its own way, undoubtedly pro-separation
campaigners from Zanzibar will want to investigate the path to such a vote.”

Tanzania’s ruling CCM have resisted calls for a special referendum on the
structure of the union. There’s also the question of who deserves to be asked
to vote in such a referendum: Zanzibaris only (population of 1.3 million),
mainlanders only (population of 43 million) or both? 3 years ago they agreed to
rewrite the entire Union Constitution that will be followed by a referendum to
adopt it. The commission that drafted the new constitution presented a
“three-tier” structure, which CCM as a majority block in the Constituent
Assembly objected to. This led to a walkout this past April by the opposition.
Last week,the constitutional process officially stalled, and efforts are currently underway to find ways
to resume it after next year’s general elections. The plan was hinted earlier
in July by Mr. January Makamba, a pro-Union and reformist politician from CCM,when he said, “If there is a need to postpone the current
constitutional process, let us do it so that we get a better constitution which
has the consensus from all sides. Since the structure of the union is a highly
contentious issue, it should be sent back to the people to decide via a
referendum before the constitutional process resumes after the 2015 general
election.”

Supporters of three-tier government structure in Tanzania argue the ruling
party CCM is using fear-mongering to claim that the three-tier structure as
proposed in the draft constitution will lead to the break-up of the Union. CCM
believes the proposed structure would leave the Union government weak and
dependent because it will be stripped-off its economic power base. They are in
favor of more devolution of powers within the current two-tier structure, but
they are yet to present specific proposals. Similar accusations of
fear-mongering has been leveled towards the “No” campaign in Scotland (known as
Better Together”), with observation that their public messaging on
behalf of the UK has been poor, lacking best content creativity and social
media savviness needed to convince the public. The same can be said with
pro-union Tanzanians, who for many years have been slow to react to the
arguments presented by Zanzibaris, to the extent the latter have been able to
create a dominant narrative.

Generally, pro-union factions in both Scotland and Zanzibar have been portrayed
by their local opponents as “stubborn conservatives” who are unwilling to
change and insist on unworkable structures that won’t preserve the unions for
long-term. There is a strong feeling in Zanzibar that pro-union supporters are
mostly political elites in the current Union government and ruling party CCM.
According toEvarist Chahali, a Tanzanian journalist and columnist living in
Glasgow, a similar perception has frequently been heard among the pro-Scotland
independence supporters that, “the whole ‘Better Together’ thing is about
preserving the status quo for some Scottish politicians at Westminster.” The
feeling in both “separatist” movements is that despite a good degree of
political devolution and autonomy, they are each subjected to a union ruling
class which doesn’t understand or care about their local issues. This partly
explains why the rest of UK is run by parties that have been rejected in
Scotland. Conversely, the opposition CUF is stronger in Zanzibar compared to
mainland Tanzania where its support declined in the last elections.

Interestingly, Scotland is said to be home to a substantial number of
Zanzibaris who went there to seek asylum after the 2001 post-election violence
at home. These foreign born asylum seekers and refugees from Commonwealth
countries like Tanzania are eligible to vote in the referendum, and will form
one of the strongest polling block for the “Yes Scotland” independence camp.
These exiled Zanzibaris are known to be opposition supporters and generally are
against the Union. However, it remains to be seen whether their role in helping
Scotland secure its independence could translate into encouraging the same to
happen in their homeland.

Despite the recent drop in numbers of undecided voters, it’s still hard to
predict the outcome of the Scottish referendum. For a while, most polls
suggested that the “Better Together” camp would prevail, but recent the polls
have been tightening, meaning the outcome could go either way. If the results
are for “Yes Scotland”, there will be a long period of negotiation on
the terms of separation, involving issues such as the division of the national
debt, the division of oil revenue, Scotland’s membership of the EU, her
retention of the Queen as head of state and continual usage of the Pound
Sterling, as well as terms of any future bailouts from UK. All will be hard
fought, as journalist Rachel Hamada adds: “Even with devolution in the late
nineties, which had widespread political support, the negotiations were fierce,
so we can expect they would be ferocious this time round”. The divorce will be
long and bitter, and Tanzanians should expect the same should a similar
situation happen to them. Analysts agree that if “No” vote wins, it will be
because the “Yes” vote for independence did not make a compelling and
reassuring case to provide a knockout punch to convince the Scottish that they
will be better off independent. Either way, most observers agree that the
result will be close and thus there will be consequence. UK will have to
consider measures to give Scotland greater powers. The Union could prevail due
to the simple fact that it is the devil the Scottish people know.

The whole of UK is an island with Scotland as part of it, while Zanzibar is an
island disconnected from her partner in the mainland. Yet, an important common
denominator between Scotland and Zanzibar is oil resources. Although Scotland
has a finite supply of oil in the North Sea, the “Yes Scotland” campaign has
based much of their argument on the ability of this resource to sustain and
propel an independent Scotland. Zanzibar is yet to discover oil near its Indian
Ocean waters, but has campaigned hard toremove oil and gas from Union Mattersso that they can manage the resource locally. The
Union government quietly agreed, and last year Zanzibarsigned an agreement with Shell to do explorationin their waters. “There is a perception that
potential for oil in the islands boosted the desire for the Zanzibaris to go
solo,” observes Chahali. Many opposition supporters in Zanzibar believe that
oil will transform the islands to their past glory, and they add this argument
alongside the restoration of national pride and the need for greater links with
the Islamic world as key arguments for full autonomy.

Perhaps the main lesson to Tanzania has been how ‘civilized’ the Scottish
referendum process has been so far. While emotions on both sides have been
running high, there have been very few incidences of violence or threats to
derail the process. Once UK government approved the referendum, it made it
clear that they would honor whatever outcome from the vote. Party politics have
been kept at bay, with “Better Together” campaign being led by Alistair
Darling, a Labour politician who is campaigning on behalf of the UK government
led by the Conservative Party. On the other hand, the “Yes Scotland” camp led
by First Minister Alex Salmond has tried to make the issue of independence that
of the Scottish people rather than his Scottish Nationalist Party.

Many agree that the way forward for Tanzania is for more devolution or greater
identity and autonomy for Zanzibar, with Union retaining big issues such as
defense and economy. The Union President Jakaya Kikwete admits to long-running
political “fault lines” in Zanzibar which necessitated a power sharing
agreement in 2010 between the two major parties in the isles.But Kikwete recently played downany notion of a strong “separatist movement” in
Zanzibar, saying it wasn’t a big issue that needed to be blown out of
proportion. He believes it can be contained: “We will always be able to manage
them and I don’t think they will be able to wreck the country,” he assured.
However, many observers believe it was partly due to such fears of secession
that compelled the President to see the wisdom of initiating a rewrite of the
Union Constitution in order to preempt violent demands for more autonomy in
Zanzibar and to guarantee survival of the Union “for the next 50 years”.
Tanzania and the Cameroon, remain the two longest surviving and most successful
unions in modern day Africa after the collapse of Ghana-Guinea Union, the Senegambia
and United Arab Republic (UAR). No other examples remain of independent Africa
countries that decided on own volition to unite.

Beyond Political and Legal Stalemate: Tanzania’s Constitutional Review Process Trudges On…

Salma Moulidi

Various attempts have
been made to challenges the legality of the Constituent Assembly (CA) since
resuming on August 5, 2014. Some have tried to kill it naturally through a much
awaited political comprise between contending political parties while others
have tried to upset the process from within. While the constitution review
process has been full of twists and drama the CA is set to complete its term
and Tanzania will have a proposed constitution by early October. Or will it?
    

Legal objections against
the Constituent Assembly

Ever since the Coalition
for the People’s Constitution (UKAWA) walked out of the CA the question of the
legality of an incomplete CA has been a recurring issue. The Attorney General
(AG), Judge Frederick Werema asserted that there is no one with the authority
to suspend or stop the CA.

Those who thought
otherwise first appealed to the President to suspend the process but when he
failed to intervene in a timely fashion some citizens resorted to the courts.
There are at least 5 court cases seeking the suspension of the CA.  The
most prominent of these are the cases filed by Saed Kubenea and that by the
Tanganyika Law Society (TLS).

Saed Kubenea is a
prominent journalist whose newspaper Mwanahalisi has been gagged by the
state. In 22 August 2014, Kubenea filed a petition along with an application
seeking an order to suspend the ongoing CA sessions pending the interpretation
by the court of Section 25 of the Constitution Review Act (Acts No.8 of 2011
and No. 2 of 2012), which describes the mandate of the CA. Specifically
Kubenea wants the court to ascertain if the CA’s overturn of proposals
contained in the Second Draft Constitution tabled by the Constitutional Review
Commission (CRC) is within the CA’s powers of improving the Draft.

The state filed a
preliminary objection arguing that Kubenea’s application was,” frivolous,
vexatious and not justiciable in law” as it was supported by a defective
affidavit. A panel of three judges namely, Mr. Justice Augustine Mwarija, Mr
Justice Fauz Twaib and Mr Justice Aloysius Mjuluzi heard the petition on Sept
10, 2014 and ruled that the CA should continue based on legal validity.

Soon after the TLS also
petitioned the High Court for leave to institute a legal action to protest the
procedure of the CA. The President of the TLS, Charles Rwechungura, explained
that the TLS wants to ascertain the legality of the CA considering that its
composition is far below what was provided for in the law, a fact that has
legal as well as political consequences. In addition to asking for an
elucidation of Section 25 of the Constitution Review Act No.8 of 2011 and No. 2
of 2012, the TLS has also asked the court to compel the AGs of Zanzibar and the
Union to tender a bill in Parliament to amend the law and to seek an order of
injunction against CA sessions.

Although state faulted
the petition filed by the TLS arguing that it did not have legal merit and “was
filed at a time there was no judgment, ruling, order or procedure that could be
questioned” the High Court dismissed all objections filed against the petition
and ruled that the arguments tendered by the AG were legally insufficient to
nullify the petitioners affidavit. The same judges who heard Kubenea’s petition
allowed the petition.

The Rev. Christopher
Mtikila, a member of the CA and Chair of the Democratic Party (DP) announced in
a weekly paper that he is in the process of collecting signatures from
different parts of the country to support his petition to stop the CA. Rev.
Mtikila is famous in Tanzania for filing constitutional challenges in court
including contesting for the right to allow independent candidates in local and
presidential elections.

Crevices persists in the
CA

Even with the most vocal
members of UKAWA out of the Assembly deep differences between members of the CA
remain. The extent of the fissures was signaled by the decision of the Zanzibar
AG, Othman Masoud, to resign from the Drafting Committee early in September. He
is opposed to the two government structure and does not want to compromise the
interests of Zanzibar.

Earlier on the Deputy
Secretary General of ruling party who is also the Deputy Minister for Finance,
Mwigulu Nchemba, called on the CA to evaluate if it is prudent to continue with
the process of drafting a constitution where the outcome is unlikely. Similar
misgivings were expressed by Dr. Raphael Chegeni, a member of CCM’s National
Executive Committee (NEC) who opinioned that the constitution review process
ought to resume after a consensus had been reached and preferably after the
General Elections. The MP for Ludewa, Deo Filikunjombe (CCM), appearing in a
local TV station stated that continuing with a one sided processes is a misuse
of the ruling party’s majority status.

Much hope rested on the
CA not obtaining the required quorum to vote in the Proposed Constitution. But
the Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs, Dr. Asha Rose- Migiro
shattered these hopes when she confirmed that the CA has a quorum. The law
provides for 630 members in the CA. 500 (79% of all members) are attending the
Assembly. Members from the Mainland are 348 (125 being the 201 group). Members
from Zanzibar are 152 (64 being from the 201 group). Although televised
sessions aired of the CA show many empty seats, the Minister explained that
members who boycotted CA sessions from either side of the union are less than
one third of all members.

The Ministers assurances
have not stopped reports of intimidation of members. Members from the Zanzibar
201 group whose votes are needed to garner the two thirds majority needed for
provisions of the Proposed Constitution to pass report receiving a malicious
text message. Other members of the CA are being urged not to reject draft so as
to justify their stay in Dodoma and the CA’s usage of resources.

The Church weighs in

Another blow against the
CA came from the Christian Forum composed of: The Tanzania Episcopal Conference
(TEC); The Council of Pentecostal Churches of Tanzania (CPCT); Christian
Council of Tanzania (CCT); The Seventh Day Adventists (SDA). On August 28, 2014
they issued a statement calling for the suspension of the constitution review
process to pave way for discussions as well as the General and Local Elections.
To safeguard the integrity of the process they wanted a clause that would
protect the 2
nd Draft as the basis for discussions. The Forum also
recommended the CRC to be reconvened and empowered to elaborate on proposals
made for the duration of the process.

The church’s opposition
against the CA was also voiced before the Prime Minister, Mizengo Pinda, by the
new Archbishop of the Lutheran Church in Tanzania, Diocese of Lake Tanganyika,
Ambele Mwaipopo who called for the constitution review process to be halted
because the CA has ignored the wishes of the citizenry. The Christian Council
of Tanzania (CCT) also critiqued the President over his rejection of the views
contained in the second Draft of the Constitution compiled by the CRC. In their
view what the President did was tantamount to a mother giving birth to a child
with great pain and instead of celebrating the baby, abandons it.

Meeting with the
President

In a bid for a peaceful
and productive end to the constitution review process leaders of the Tanzania
Centre for Democracy (TCD) sought audience with the President to resolve the
ongoing stalemate plaguing the Constitution Review process. The TCD is made up
of various political parties registered in Tanzania with representation in
Parliament. The TCD met twice with the President, on August 30 and September 8,
2014 and came to an agreement.  

Mr. John Cheyo, the
TCD Chair and also the National Chairman of the United Democratic Party (UDP),
summarised the main points of the agreement with the President as follows:

ðthat the on-going constitution review process would
continue until October 4 after which it will be postponed, to resume after the
2015 General Elections under a new President. The postponement is in accordance
with the 60 days extension granted through Government Notice Number 254 issued
by the President on August 1, 2014;

ðthat the referendum will take place in April 2016 and
if there is a need the process will again be repeated again in June 2016;

ðthat the 1977 Constitution would be amended to allow
for an independent electoral body and independent candidates.

ðthat the new president will have to secure more than
50 percent of the votes instead of a simple majority. In case of an election
dispute presidential results could be challenged in court.

The agreement has,
however, not pleased everyone. UKAWA maintains that President Kikwete was
supposed to suspend the CA after he declared the postponement of the
referendum. They have threatened to take to the streets to force the suspension
of the CA. Interestingly neither the President or the State House has taken the
lead on announcing and clarifying the agreement with TCD.

Although the Legal and
Human Rights Centre (LHRC) was one of the organisations that wanted the
constitution review process halted it has spoken strongly against the
postponement of the constitution review process. The LHRC Director of
Empowerment and Accountability, Emelda Urio, argued that the two processes need
not overlap since Article 268 of the Draft Constitution provides for a transitional
period of four years.

What next?

Upon its resumption on
August 5, 2014 the CA had scheduled its sessions until October 31, 2014 at
which time it would be ready to submit a proposed Constitution to the
President. Towards this end the CA amended rule 14 (4) to make Saturday and
Sunday nonworking days. This changed following the agreement between President
Kikwete and the TCD and the draft document [was to] be tabled by Thursday
September 18 while voting for the provisions of the Proposed Constitution [was
to] begin September 29 and end on Oct 2. Again this departs from initial
instructions where the Assembly was told that voting would begin on September
26 to October 4.

While the Constitution review process
continues to be shrouded with uncertainties and legal challenges Henry
Muhanika, a columnist, observes that whether Tanzania gets a new constitution
soon or not, it will never be the same.